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Vertical exposes the most surface area and is best for convection moving the hot air away from the mac operating in clamshell mode. BUT, I'd just say, the mStand looks pretty darn cool both when the mac is open and closed. Anyway, the macbook is pretty darn cool, but I'm not doing your "close the lid while cranking the processor" plan. I own the Rain Design mStand, which holds it mostly horizontal, though angled. I know that past mac laptops (that "killer whale" powerbook G3 I had so long ago) explicitly stated that the keyboard was one of the primary cooling elements, therefore there was no bypassing the automatic sleep-on-close. Note that I didn't even know you could keep the macbook running with the lid closed. One could guess that a truly vertical stand would only be blocking one of the thin edges of the macbook, while a horizontal one would block part of a large flat surface. Namely, "to get your answer, you would not necessarily consider vertical versus horizontal, but simply look at the stands and see which one allows the most air to circulate, unblocked, around the macbook."
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I think that in the absence of some kind of surprising physics formula, most of us would have roughly the same answer to that question.
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